COLA Prediction Track Record: How Close Do the Forecasters Get?
The 2027 cycle, graded (actual COLA: 3.6%)
| Forecaster | Final published estimate | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | 3.5% | 3.6% | −0.1 |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 3.4% | 3.6% | −0.2 |
| 24/7 Wall St. | 3.3% | 3.6% | −0.3 |
| AARP | 3.6% | 3.6% | exact |
| Kiplinger | 3.6% | 3.6% | exact |
Mean absolute miss across the five: 0.12 points. The pattern inside the cycle is the real lesson — estimates clustered tightly but shaded low, and even the closest watcher moved during the season: TSCL published 3.6% in August, trimmed to 3.5% in September once the August CPI-W print landed, and the official answer came back at 3.6%.
How a COLA forecast is built (and why early ones drift)
The COLA is the change in the average CPI-W for July, August and September versus the same quarter a year earlier. A forecaster publishing in spring knows none of those three months and must project all of them from current inflation trends; by mid-September, two of the three prints are real and only September is modeled. That is why estimates converge as the year goes on, why the final pre-announcement numbers are typically within a few tenths, and why a single surprising September print can still move the answer. It is also why this archive grades final published estimates — the ones a reader could actually have relied on in October — rather than cherry-picking a forecaster's best month.
Why the archive starts with the 2027 cycle
An honest archive needs dated publications, not recollections. For cycles before the 2027 COLA, this site did not systematically preserve who predicted what, when — and reconstructing those numbers now from undated summaries would produce a table that looks authoritative and is not. So the record starts here and grows by one fully-sourced cycle each year: estimates for the 2028 COLA are being logged as they appear on the 2028 forecast tracker, and will be graded on this page when the official figure is announced in October 2027. The raw material on the other side of every grade — the official COLA itself — is the SSA series behind the complete history table.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are COLA predictions?
In the first cycle this archive grades in full — the 2027 COLA — the five tracked final estimates (3.3% to 3.6%) averaged 0.12 percentage points from the actual 3.6%. Final estimates published after the August CPI-W data are usually close; the misses grow the earlier in the year the estimate is made, because only the July–September quarter counts and forecasters must project the missing months.
Who predicted the 2027 COLA exactly?
AARP and Kiplinger both landed on 3.6%. The Senior Citizens League finished at 3.5% (it had published 3.6% in August, then trimmed to 3.5% in September), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget at 3.4%, and 24/7 Wall St. at 3.3%.
Why does this archive start with the 2027 COLA?
Because it is the first cycle for which this site kept dated, published estimates from named forecasters all the way through the cycle. Reconstructing earlier years' predictions from memory or undated secondary summaries would manufacture a record that looks precise and isn't — the archive will grow one fully-sourced cycle per year instead.
When will the 2028 cycle be graded?
The 2028 COLA will be announced in October 2027. Estimates appearing during 2027 are tracked live on the 2028 forecast page; the final estimates will be moved here and graded against the actual figure when it lands.
Sources: forecaster estimates as published during 2026 and tracked on this site's 2027 COLA guide (TSCL COLA Watch releases, August and September 2026; CRFB; 24/7 Wall St.; AARP; Kiplinger); actual figure: SSA announcement, October 14, 2026.