The 2027 COLA Announcement: October 14, 2026
The number, and the data under it
The COLA is the change in the average CPI-W for the third quarter, year over year, rounded to the nearest tenth. The September 2026 index — published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the morning of the announcement — completed the quarter:
| Third quarter | July | August | September | Q3 average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 316.349 | 317.306 | 318.139 | 317.265 |
| 2026 | 327.104 | 328.481 | 330.654 | 328.746 |
328.746 ÷ 317.265 = +3.62%, which the statute rounds to 3.6%. The step-by-step mechanics — why only the third quarter counts, and why the COLA can never be negative — are on the how COLA is calculated page.
Forecasts vs. the announcement
| Forecaster (final published estimate) | Estimate | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| AARP | 3.6% | 3.6% | exact |
| Kiplinger | 3.6% | 3.6% | exact |
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.5% | 3.6% | −0.1 |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 3.4% | 3.6% | −0.2 |
| 24/7 Wall St. | 3.3% | 3.6% | −0.3 |
Inside the season, the estimates moved: TSCL published 3.6% in August and trimmed to 3.5% in September as the August CPI-W print landed — and the official answer came back at its August number. The cycle is graded in full on the prediction track record page, which is also where the 2028 cycle will be scored.
What else the announcement set
| Figure (SSA, October 14, 2026) | 2027 value |
|---|---|
| Average retired worker benefit (January 2027) | $2,170 (from $2,095) |
| Taxable wage base | $192,300 |
| Earnings-test limits | $25,560 / $67,920 |
| Maximum benefit at full retirement age | $4,188 |
| Federal SSI standards | $1,029 individual / $1,544 couple |
| First payments with the increase | SSI: December 31, 2026 · Social Security: January 13 / 20 / 27, 2027 |
The one major figure the announcement did not contain: the 2027 Medicare Part B premium, which is CMS's to publish (expected November 2026) and which determines how much of the 3.6% beneficiaries keep. Its status is tracked on the Part B premium 2027 page and in the COLA news log.
Frequently asked questions
When was the 2027 COLA announced?
On Wednesday, October 14, 2026 — the same morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September 2026 CPI-W, completing the third-quarter data the formula requires. The SSA's announcement and fact sheet were released together.
How close were the forecasts?
Close, and mostly low. Final published estimates: AARP 3.6% and Kiplinger 3.6% (exact), The Senior Citizens League 3.5%, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget 3.4%, and 24/7 Wall St. 3.3% — a mean miss of 0.12 percentage points against the actual 3.6%.
What else did the announcement contain?
Beyond the headline percentage: the estimated average benefits for January 2027 (retired worker $2,170; aged couple $3,355; disabled worker $1,701), the 2027 fact sheet (wage base $192,300; earnings-test limits $25,560/$67,920; maximum benefit at full retirement age $4,188; SSI standards $1,029/$1,544), and the payment start dates.
Where can I see the announcement's underlying math?
On the how-COLA-is-calculated page, which works the actual Q3 numbers — 316.349/317.306/318.139 (Q3 2025, average 317.265) against 327.104/328.481/330.654 (Q3 2026, average 328.746) — through the statutory formula to the rounded 3.6%.
Sources: SSA news release and 2027 COLA fact sheet, October 14, 2026; BLS CPI-W releases; forecaster estimates as published during 2026 (TSCL, AARP, Kiplinger, CRFB, 24/7 Wall St.).