2028 Social Security COLA Forecast: The Tracker
How a COLA forecast is actually built
A serious forecast is not a guess at next year's inflation in general — it is arithmetic on one specific series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the CPI-W every month. Forecasters such as The Senior Citizens League take the readings as they arrive and compute what the third-quarter average would be if the trend continued; their estimate tightens as the year goes on and becomes exact the day the September reading lands. Only three months ever enter the official formula:
| Input | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 CPI-W average (the base) | 328.746 | Final — it set the 2027 COLA at 3.6% |
| July 2027 CPI-W | — | Published ~August 2027 |
| August 2027 CPI-W | — | Published ~September 2027 |
| September 2027 CPI-W | — | Published ~October 2027 — announcement day |
| 2028 COLA = Q3 2027 avg ÷ 328.746 − 1 | Unknown | Announced October 2027; paid from January 2028 |
The full formula, rounding rules and the 2026 worked example are on how the COLA is calculated.
Scenario table: what Q3 2027 would have to average
| If Q3 2027 CPI-W averages… | …the 2028 COLA is |
|---|---|
| 328.75 or less (prices flat-to-down vs Q3 2026) | 0.0% — the formula floors at zero |
| 332.03 (+1.0%) | 1.0% |
| 335.32 (+2.0%) | 2.0% |
| 338.61 (+3.0%) | 3.0% |
| 340.58 (+3.6%) | 3.6% — a repeat of 2027 |
Scenarios are arithmetic on the official base, not predictions. For scale: the long-run average COLA is about 2.6%, and the post-pandemic sequence ran 5.9%, 8.7%, 3.2%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.6% (full history).
Forecaster roundup — and the 2027 scorecard
2028: no published estimates yet (status: October 29, 2026). TSCL's first is expected in November 2026; this table will carry each forecaster's estimate with its date as they appear.
| Forecaster | Final 2027 estimate | Official: 3.6% |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (final, Sep 2026) | 3.5% | −0.1 |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 3.4% | −0.2 |
| 24/7 Wall St. | 3.3% | −0.3 |
| AARP | 3.6% | exact |
| Kiplinger | 3.6% | exact |
The 2027 cycle in one lesson: the forecasters clustered within 0.3 points of the answer but almost all shaded low — and TSCL's own estimate traveled from 3.6% in August to 3.5% in September before landing. Treat any single early number, including the ones that will appear here for 2028, as a range with a date on it.
Update log
October 2026 — page launched. The 2027 COLA (3.6%) is final. The 2028 figure cannot exist yet in any rigorous form: its base (328.746) is set, but the comparison quarter is July–September 2027. Monthly CPI-W prints through 2027 will feed forecaster estimates; only the three summer-2027 prints count officially. Next expected update: TSCL's first 2028 prediction (November 2026) and the October 2026 CPI-W release.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current forecast for the 2028 COLA?
There isn't one yet — and any site quoting a precise 2028 percentage in 2026 is guessing. As of October 29, 2026, no major forecaster has published a 2028 estimate: The Senior Citizens League, which issues the most-followed monthly forecast, has said its first 2028 prediction arrives in November 2026. Structurally, almost nothing is knowable yet: only the July–September 2027 CPI-W readings count, and they will not exist until October 2027.
When will the 2028 COLA be announced?
In October 2027, on the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September 2027 CPI-W — the same pattern as the 2027 announcement on October 14, 2026. It applies to benefits paid from January 2028 (SSI from December 31, 2027).
Could the 2028 COLA be zero?
Yes. The formula floors at zero — benefits are never cut — and it has happened three times: the COLAs for 2010, 2011 and 2016 were all 0.0% after the measurement-quarter average failed to exceed the previous high. If the third-quarter 2027 CPI-W average is at or below 328.746 (the third-quarter 2026 level), the 2028 COLA is 0.0%.
How can I follow the number as it builds?
Watch the monthly CPI-W releases during 2027 and this page: we update the running-average tracker and the forecaster roundup monthly. The only months that enter the official formula are July, August and September 2027, but forecasters' estimates move with every monthly print.
Sources: BLS CPI-W series; SSA COLA methodology and October 14, 2026 announcement; The Senior Citizens League COLA Watch (first 2028 prediction expected November 2026). Estimates on this page are always labeled with source and date; nothing here is an official figure.